A look back at the polls (2/2): what a difference a year makes

by Stephen Tall on July 1, 2008

To celebrate the beginning of Gordon’s second (and last?) year as Prime Minister, what could be more cheering than to have a look at the parties’ polling averages over the last 12 months? Well, if you’re a Labour supporter, smearing yourself in slurry would probably be more comforting, but never mind:

June 2007 (Tony Blair’s last month in charge)
Tories: 36%, Labour: 36%, Lib Dems: 17%
Tory lead 0%

July 2007 (Gordon Brown’s first full month as PM)
Tories: 34%, Labour: 39%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory lead -5%

August 2007 (Floods, terrorists and foot-and-mouth)
Tories: 34%, Labour: 39%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory lead -5%

September 2007 (The honeymoon reaches its peak)
Tories: 33%, Labour: 41%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory lead -8%

October 2007 (The election-that-never-was)
Tories: 40%, Labour: 38%, Lib Dems: 13%
Tory lead +2%

November 2007 (Vince Cables labels the PM as ‘Mr Bean’)
Tories: 40%, Labour: 33%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory lead +7%

December 2007 (Nick Clegg elected Lib Dem leader)
Tories: 41%, Labour: 33%, Lib Dems: 16%
Tory lead +8%

January 2008 (Peter Hain gets into trouble over campaign donations)
Tories: 39%, Labour: 33%, Lib Dems: 17%
Tory lead +6%

February 2008 (Derek Conway forced to quit as Tory MP over sleaze)
Tories: 40%, Labour: 33%, Lib Dems: 17%
Tory lead +7%

March 2008 (Lib Dem splits over Lisbon Treaty referendum vote)
Tories: 41%, Labour: 31%, Lib Dems: 18%
Tory lead +10%

April 2008 (Gordon’s 10p tax-con comes back to bite him)
Tories: 41%, Labour: 30%, Lib Dems: 18%
Tory lead +11%

May 2008 (Local elections: Boris beats Ken and Lib Dems beat Labour)
Tories: 44%, Labour: 27%, Lib Dems: 18%
Tory lead +17%

June 2008 (By elections: Tories take Crewe and Labour finishes 5th in Henley)
Tories: 45%, Labour: 26%, Lib Dems: 18%
Tory lead +19%