New LDV competition: predict how the Lib Dems will do on 1st May

by Stephen Tall on April 21, 2008

Election fever is gripping the nation. Well, maybe not, but political activists up and down the country are currently wearing out their shoe leather canvassing and delivering leaflets ahead of the local elections in 10 days’ time.

Since the last national test of opinion, in May 2007, both the Lib Dems and Labour have replaced their leaders, a general election has been hyped-up then postponed, and a global credit crunch has become reality. So there’s plenty for the voters to pass judgment upon. And of course many local votes will be decided, quite rightly, on the performance of local government with barely a reference to national policies.

We’re asking you to use all your psephological nous to tell us what you think will happen this year. Here are the three questions:

1. How many Council seats do you think the Lib Dems will gain or lose on 1st May? (This is net seats as recorded by the BBC website at 5pm on Fri, 2nd May).
2. What do you think will be the Lib Dems’, Labour and Tory national projected share of the vote? (Again, as stated by the BBC website at 5pm on 2nd May)?
3. What do you think will be the percentage of first preferences won by the three main candidates for London mayor?

Please leave your entries in the comments box, below. You can use a pseudonym if you prefer to remain anonymous, but you must use a valid email address for your entry to be included.

And the prize? Leaving to one side the admiration of your peers and glory of victory, you’ll win a limited edition Lib Dem Voice mug.

Here’s some historical background to help you in your deliberations…

Back in 2004, when most of the Council seats up this time were last contested (along with the European Parliament elections), the Liberal Democrats won almost 1,300 seats, 21 percent of the total and a net gain of over 100. The party won more seats than the Conservatives in both the North East and North West regions. The Lib Dems gained control of Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Pendle but lost control of 4 other councils.

Estimates suggest that the Lib Dems won around 27% of the national equivalent vote, compared to 37% for the Tories and 26% for Labour. This was the first time the Lib Dems had come second in nationally contested local elections in modern political history. (All information from the House of Commons research paper 04/49, Local elections 2004.)

In the London mayoral election, Simon Hughes (14.8%) came third against Labour’s Ken Livingstone (35.7%) and the Tories’ Steve Norris (28.2%), with Mayor Livingstone besting Mr Norris after second preferences, 55.4% to 44.6%.

In the London Assembly elections, the Lib Dems polled 18.4% of the constituency vote, compared to Labour’s 24.7% and the Tories’ 31.2%. After additional members were added to reflect the top-up vote, the Tories had nine AMs, Labour seven, the Lib Dems five, Greens two and UKIP two.

And here’s what electoral expert John Curtice’s analysis, as published in the Sunday Telegraph last week:

The Liberal Democrats look as though they will struggle to repeat their 2004 success. Their national poll standing is three to four points down on four years ago, while their performance in last year’s local elections was also some three points below 2004. Even if the Tories are no more than the principal beneficiaries of a Liberal Democrat decline, Mr Cameron will still be able to notch up some gains. Such an outcome could be enough to ensure the party gains control of a clutch of councils in the South and Midlands.

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Please leave ONLY predictions below in the format, as it will make it much easier to score:

1.
Lib Dem Net Change –

2.
Lab Share –
Con Share –
LD Share –

3.
Ken 1st Pref –
Borris 1st Pref –
Brian 1st Pref –

Thanks
Ryan

by Ryan Cullen on April 21, 2008 at 1:09 pm. Reply #

1.

Lib Dem Net Change

– 40 seats

2.

Lab Share: 30%
Con Share: 43%
Lib Dem Share: 24%

3.

Ken First Pref:35%
Boris First Pref: 45%
Brian First Pref: 16%

by Darrell on April 21, 2008 at 1:20 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – minus 65

2.
Lab Share – 28%
Con Share – 50%
LD Share – 22%

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 45%
Boris 1st Pref – 47%
Brian 1st Pref – 8%

by Bob Shaw on April 21, 2008 at 1:48 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – minus 75 councillors

2.
Lab Share – 23%
Con Share – 44%
LD Share – 25%

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 42%
Boris 1st Pref – 43%
Brian 1st Pref – 11%

by Ross Chmiel on April 21, 2008 at 1:51 pm. Reply #

Regrettably, I think the Clegg factor is going to really cost us. A good few people around the country who have served their communities well are going to pay for his mistakes. On the council front, we may pick up one or two councils, but we risk losing outright control in several places. Paddick will, I’m afraid, be significantly squeezed by a belief that – to coin a phrase – it’s a two-horse race, and we’re not one of the two.

1.
LD net change – minus 100 cllrs

2.
Lab share – 27%
Con share – 44%
LD share – 23%

3.
Ken – 40%
Boris – 43%
Brian – 9%

by Derek Young on April 21, 2008 at 2:48 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – -50

2.
Lab Share – 28
Con Share – 42
LD Share – 10

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 25
Borris 1st Pref – 44
Brian 1st Pref – 10

by davy on April 21, 2008 at 2:49 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – -19 councillors

2.
Lab Share – 23.5
Con Share – 42
LD Share – 27.5

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 38
Boris 1st Pref – 43
Brian 1st Pref – 12

by Oglethorpe on April 21, 2008 at 2:55 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – -28

2.
Lab Share – 23%
Con Share – 43%
LD Share – 23%

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 37
Boris 1st Pref – 44
Brian 1st Pref – 10

by Elaine on April 21, 2008 at 4:19 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – 0

2.
Lab Share – 24
Con Share – 40
LD Share – 27

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 36
Borris 1st Pref – 45
Brian 1st Pref – 14

by Andy Hinton on April 21, 2008 at 5:33 pm. Reply #

“Regrettably, I think the Clegg factor is going to really cost us.”

What a load of tosh.

by Cheltenham Robin on April 21, 2008 at 9:45 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change -150 Cllrs

2.
Lab Share -27
Con Share -44
LD Share – 20

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 35
Borris 1st Pref – 38
Brian 1st Pref – 11

by jim on April 21, 2008 at 9:54 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change No change

2.
Lab Share -21
Con Share -44
LD Share – 24

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 29
Borris 1st Pref – 43
Brian 1st Pref – 19

by Eastender on April 21, 2008 at 10:50 pm. Reply #

1.
LibDem net change – +11

2.
Lab Share – 23
Con Share – 39
LD Share – 22

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 33
Boris 1st Pref – 37
Brian 1st Pref – 17

by Diversity on April 22, 2008 at 2:58 pm. Reply #

1
– 23

2
Lab 24
Con 43
Lib 19

3

Ken 37
Boris 41
Brian 14

by David on April 22, 2008 at 4:00 pm. Reply #

1. Net change +22

2. Lab share 26%
Con share 41%
Lib share 23%

3. Ken 38%
Boris 37%
Brian 13%

by tony hill on April 22, 2008 at 6:41 pm. Reply #

What a gloomy thread.

1. nearly everyone predicting net losses

2. bit of a split on wether or not we’ll come third in the vote share

3. almost everyone predicting lower vote share for brian than simon got in 2004 despite whats transparently a much better camapign and candidate. HMM.

by David Morton on April 22, 2008 at 7:01 pm. Reply #

David,

I’m not a Londoner so I haven’t seen much of the campaign there itself, but my inclination is that Simon Hughes had a high profile to begin with but that, much as he has many talents, Brian Paddick hasn’t done enough to insert himself into the debate between Boris and Ken. From our experience in 2007 in Scotland, despite being in good heart and well-organised, we lost ground to the SNP because it was perceived to be a two-way battle between them and Labour, and I think the London mayor race may be going the same way.

The overall tone of the thread may be gloomy, but as you note it’s pretty consistent. Assuming we’ll make sweeping gains just doesn’t seem to chime with reaction on the ground. As for predictions of losses, remember that in many cases the same seats were being fought in 2004, when we had in Charles Kennedy a leader who was popular and had half a clue what he was doing politically, whereas no serious observer could now claim that either of these factors now applies.

by Derek Young on April 22, 2008 at 7:40 pm. Reply #

“1. nearly everyone predicting net losses”

Hard to tell whether those are dashes or minus signs though 🙂

by Hywel Morgan on April 22, 2008 at 7:55 pm. Reply #

1. Minus 72

2.
Lab – 25
Con – 39
Lib – 24

3.
Ken – 35
Boris – 36
Brian – 17

by Clive Merriewether on April 22, 2008 at 11:51 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – loss of 69 seats

2.
Lab Share – 28
Con Share – 42
LD Share – 19

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 39
Boris 1st Pref – 41
Brian 1st Pref – 15

by Jennie on April 23, 2008 at 12:32 am. Reply #

Derek,

I’m not a Londoner either so i should clarify that my rather sweeping statement about the Hughes camapaign was based on external observation rather than on the ground experience. However I remain of the view that the ken?Boris combined first preference figures remain to high. When people get there ballot paper and see the choice the others figure will increase.

As for 2004 you are spot on. I was reelected in 2004 and the situation was so bad my majority ended up being over the Green party rather than Labour. The great mistake the party has made is assuming that the Iraq effect is a permenet feature rather than a nice windfall. I suspect a modest net loss of seats, double rather than treble figures is realistic.

by David Morton on April 23, 2008 at 12:41 am. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – minus 120

2.
Lab Share – 25%
Con Share – 40%
LD Share – 26%

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 34%
Borris 1st Pref – 32%
Brian 1st Pref – 12%

by Nigel Ashton on April 23, 2008 at 2:40 pm. Reply #

1. Plus 15 seats
2. Lab – 27%
Tory – 37%
Lib Dem – 26%
3. Ken – 36%
Boris – 42 %
Brian 16%

by rochdale cowboy on April 23, 2008 at 3:04 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – minus 30

2.
Lab Share – 22%
Con Share – 40%
LD Share – 21%

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 38%
Borris 1st Pref – 38%
Brian 1st Pref – 11%

by dandoh on April 26, 2008 at 2:54 pm. Reply #

1.

Lib Dem Net change – PLUS 110

2.

Lab 26%
LD 26%
Con 34%

3.

Ken 35%
Boris 37%
Brian 11%

But I wouldn’t bet on it!

by Martin Land on April 26, 2008 at 3:49 pm. Reply #

1.Seat change -nil.Gains from Labour in N and Wales offset by losses to Tories in
But opportunity to pick up some northern councils.

2.Con 40
Lib 25
Lab 24

3.Ken 40
Boris 39
Brian 10

by roger heape on April 27, 2008 at 8:37 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – minus 85 seats

2.
Lab Share – 26%
Con Share – 42%
LD Share – 24%

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 37%
Boris 1st Pref – 39%
Brian 1st Pref – 15%

by Stephen Tall on April 30, 2008 at 6:41 pm. Reply #

1. How many Council seats do you think the Lib Dems will gain or lose on 1st May? (This is net seats as recorded by the BBC website at 5pm on Fri, 2nd May).

Net Loss of 100

2. What do you think will be the Lib Dems’, Labour and Tory national projected share of the vote? (Again, as stated by the BBC website at 5pm on 2nd May)?

Con 44% Lib Dem 24% Lab 20%

3. What do you think will be the percentage of first preferences won by the three main candidates for London mayor?

Johnson 36%, Livingstone 33%, Paddick 15%

by Harry Hayfield on April 30, 2008 at 7:07 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – -125 seats

2.
Lab Share – 25%
Con Share – 43%
LD Share – 17%

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 40
Borris 1st Pref -48
Brian 1st Pref 6

The LibDems have fought a totally inactive campaign under their ineffectual new leader. Who is he?

by Madasafish on April 30, 2008 at 10:34 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – +15

2.
Lab Share – 25
Con Share – 41
LD Share – 25

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 32
Borris 1st Pref – 35
Brian 1st Pref – 16

by Mark on April 30, 2008 at 10:45 pm. Reply #

1. Lib Dem’s Minus 50 seats

2. Con – 42
Lab – 26
Lib Dem – 28

3. Boris – 43
Brian – 10
Ken. – 40

by Tim Hall on May 1, 2008 at 12:11 pm. Reply #

1. How many Council seats do you think the Lib Dems will gain or lose on 1st May? (This is net seats as recorded by the BBC website at 5pm on Fri, 2nd May). We will lose around 50 seats mainly to the Tories

2. What do you think will be the Lib Dems’, Labour and Tory national projected share of the vote? (Again, as stated by the BBC website at 5pm on 2nd May)?our share of the vote percentage wise will remain the same +/-1%

3. What do you think will be the percentage of first preferences won by the three main candidates for London mayor? Boris 45%, Ken 37%, Brian 14%

by theChristophe on May 1, 2008 at 12:33 pm. Reply #

1.
Lib Dem Net Change – +5 (some of the predictions here are a bit unrealistic given that a chunk of the seats won in 2004 aren’t up for election as the mets were all up then – the overall no of seats mitigate against big losses

2.
Lab Share – 26
Con Share – 39
LD Share – 25

3.
Ken 1st Pref – 38
Borris 1st Pref – 37
Brian 1st Pref – 9

by Hywel Morgan on May 1, 2008 at 9:30 pm. Reply #

The BBC isn’t being that fair… apparently if the Tories perform tonight as well as their recent poll ratings (i.e. in the low 40s) then that’s a good result for them; LibDems however need to score 10% higher than our recent poll ratings to have a good night. How did they work that one out?

by Stuart on May 1, 2008 at 10:19 pm. Reply #

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