by Stephen Tall on October 9, 2007
There’s nothing amateur psephologists and party hacks like more then feeding the latest poll figures into Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus seats predictor. Tonight, there’s a small ripple of excitement in the blogosphere as it shows the Lib Dems with zero (0) seats.
From which we can infer two possible conclusions:
1. The Baxter model is nonsensical for three party politics (which is what now de facto exists in the UK);
2. Or the Lib Dems are going to find themselves in a worse position than the Liberal Party in 1979, which retained 11 MPs even after Jeremy Thorpe’s resignation and the Steel-Callaghan pact.
For those political journalists – such as the Daily Mail’s usually pretty clued-up Benedict Brogan – struggling to ‘do the math’ and understand why conclusion 1 is correct, try reading Andy Mayer’s sensible rebuttal. And then try and write something sensible instead.