Oh gawd, now they’re wheeling out Baxter

by Stephen Tall on October 9, 2007

There’s nothing amateur psephologists and party hacks like more then feeding the latest poll figures into Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus seats predictor. Tonight, there’s a small ripple of excitement in the blogosphere as it shows the Lib Dems with zero (0) seats.

From which we can infer two possible conclusions:

1. The Baxter model is nonsensical for three party politics (which is what now de facto exists in the UK);

2. Or the Lib Dems are going to find themselves in a worse position than the Liberal Party in 1979, which retained 11 MPs even after Jeremy Thorpe’s resignation and the Steel-Callaghan pact.

For those political journalists – such as the Daily Mail’s usually pretty clued-up Benedict Brogan – struggling to ‘do the math’ and understand why conclusion 1 is correct, try reading Andy Mayer’s sensible rebuttal. And then try and write something sensible instead.