Top 50 Lib Dem target seats

by Stephen Tall on February 11, 2006

The splendid Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report has undertaken a painstaking analysis of the boundary changes and their implications for the next general election. His report can be found here.

All his notional majority figures are based on how the parties polled at the last general election:

Labour = 36%, Tory = 33%, Lib Dem = 23%

If those figures were repeated, Labour would lose a net 10 seats, the Tories would gain 14 seats, and the Lib Dems would gain 1 seat.

Anthony has also calculated the Lib Dems’ top 50 target seats: 22 of them are currently Labour-held, and 28 of them are Tory-held. They are as follows:

Target No., Constituency, Incumbent Party, Notional majority, Swing required

1. Solihull, Conservative [currently Lib Dem held], 17, 0.02%
2. Guildford, Conservative, 77, 0.08%

3. Oxford East, Labour, 399, 0.45%
4. Edinburgh South, Labour, 405, 0.47%
5. Islington South & Finsbury, Labour, 484, 0.78%
6. Oldham East & Saddleworth, Labour, 546, 0.78%
7. Eastbourne, Conservative, 755, 0.80%
8. Watford, Labour, 1148, 1.16%
9. Hampstead & Kilburn, Labour, 1095, 1.28%

10. Ealing Acton, Conservative, 55, 1.51%
11. Aberdeen South, Labour, 1348, 1.62%
12. Torridge & West Devon, Conservative, 1677, 1.69%
13. Meon Valley, Conservative, 1949, 2.04%
14. Weston-Super-Mare, Conservative, 2079, 2.12%
15. Ludlow, Conservative, 2027, 2.18%

16. Dorset West, Conservative, 2461, 2.31%
17. Edinburgh North and Leith, Labour, 2153, 2.52%
18. Devon Central, Conservative, 2534, 2.67%
19. Wells, Conservative, 3040, 2.87%
20. Totnes, Conservative, 2739, 3.00%
21. Newbury, Conservative, 3418, 3.18%
22. Worcestershire West, Conservative, 3597, 3.61%
23. Bournemouth West, Conservative, 2608, 3.66%

24. City of Durham, Labour, 3274, 3.69%
25. Norwich South, Labour, 3129, 3.85%
26. Chelmsford, Conservative, 3745, 3.99%
27. North Dorset, Conservative, 3910, 4.14%
28. Filton & Bradley Stoke, Conservative, 1201, 4.23%

29. Liverpool Wavertree, Labour, 3038, 4.37%
30. Leicester South, Labour, 3725, 4.39%
31. Derby North, Labour, 3552, 4.43%

32. Harborough, Conservative, 4369, 4.46%
33. Birmingham Hall Green, Labour, 4375, 5.04%
34. Orpington, Conservative, 5156, 5.24%
35. Broadland, Conservative, 5121, 5.28%
36. Haltemprice & Howden, Conservative, 5085, 5.32%
37. St Albans, Conservative, 1421, 5.35%
38. Surrey South West, Conservative, 5981, 5.62%

39. Reading East, Conservative, 850, 5.69%
40. Colne Valley, Labour, 1430, 5.70%
41. Somerset North, Conservative, 6016, 5.83%
42. Aberconwy, Labour, 243, 5.84%
43. Glasgow North, Labour, 3338, 5.98%

44. Mid Sussex, Conservative, 6261, 6.02%
45. Bristol North West, Labour, 1075, 6.11%
46. Northampton North, Labour, 3483, 6.22%
47. Bradford East, Labour, 4679, 6.40%
48. Swansea West, Labour, 4269, 6.45%
49. Blaydon, Labour, 5634, 6.72%

50. Wantage, Conservative, 7335, 6.75%